China Finance 经济要闻

In Shenzhen has had the middle-income ratio is relatively high, level of education is relatively high, relatively high level of urbanization of the “three high” under the premise of the characteristics, Shenzhen can be planned by deepening so that at the core of the Pearl River Delta, Shenzhen region to become China’s largest city Xinhuanet combined group, to become the world’s most dynamic markets, and driven in the market to continuously consolidate and develop its own innovation center, thus for China to expand domestic demand and continue to play an important role in transition.

“U.S. savings rate of change on the high degree of dependence on the global economy have a significant impact, the future world is an important aspect of competition between markets.” Central Financial and Economic Leading Group Office Liu, deputy director of the view that China should become a domestic demand-led countries, and steadily push forward the process of urbanization in China to expand domestic demand the main driver of the source of the next 10 years may be promoting the urbanization of China’s best historical opportunity. He also said that Shenzhen should be planned for the deepening of China, China to expand domestic demand to create a new growth pole, becoming the most dynamic world markets an important part.

market will become one of the most valuable resources

“The world is highly dependent on each other.” for the U.S. savings rate changes, Liu said that the U.S. consumption accounts for about U.S. GDP, 75% -79%, if the U.S. consumption rate, savings rate, the global trading system, financial system, as well as all aspects of the institutional arrangements will have a significant impact. Does not change in the trend of globalization, do not change the market trend of these two important premise, the U.S. savings rate regardless of the short or long or medium term, will have an impact on the global economy.

on China’s situation, Liu said that the Yangtze River Delta region share a relatively large number of trade is in the EU region, the Pearl River Delta region is more of re-exports through Hong Kong to the United States, now the proportion of re-exports to Hong Kong is 33%, directly to the United States is 28 percent, the two add up to more than 50 percent, so the Pearl River Delta region will be subject to the recent economic implications.

from the medium and long term, Liu believes that the contraction of the global market means that all countries may pay more attention to domestic demand, pay more attention to the protection of the domestic market, the phenomenon of trade protectionism will also be “heard.” And because of the contraction of aggregate demand in the next long-term period of time, the market will become the most valuable resource, the world economy will be Return to Innocence, truly have that ability to provide the world market, countries will be able to obtain a higher international status. “In the future an important aspect of global competition is the dispute over how to conduct market.” He said.

China to become a domestic demand-led national

market means that a greater extent the importance of export-dependent manner the development of China needs to change and growth mode, to become a domestic demand-led countries. Liu believes that if China is to become a domestic demand-oriented countries in the international division of labor would like to see from the main producer is the producer to the consumer it is transformed, and will gradually become the world’s major markets, then, first of all from the mainly rely on exports and the stimulation of investment mainly rely on domestic demand to promote shift changes, the establishment of savings and consumption to adjust the relationship between the institutional environment, through a comprehensive system to enable the consumption rate has been steadily improving.

Second is to improve the urbanization and urban economies of scale. Liu said that in terms of a big city, and steadily push forward the process of urbanization in China to expand domestic demand, the source of the main driving force, China’s urbanization rate has been close to 45 percent, but the basis of urbanization is not solid, should continue to promote stability. “The next 10 years may be promoting the urbanization of China’s best historical opportunity, if we miss this historical opportunity, China’s strategy of expanding domestic demand may be affected.”

Also need to increase the middle-income proportion. Liu said that although China has achieved some people and some regions get rich first phase goal, with a population gradually expand the number of middle-income class is emerging, however, from any point of measurement, the proportion of this group is still low. Under such circumstances, the most important is to make workers have to adapt to market competition and global environmental change and toughness. Therefore, he paid special attention to the need to strengthen education, and strive to improve the level of human capital.

strengthen innovation planned for the consolidation of the status of

“the previous round of reform and opening up, Shenzhen Special Economic Zone has played a vital pioneering role, in a sense to said that Shenzhen’s experience, not only to lead China’s reform and opening up the future, for developing countries of the world are also of great significance. “Liu expressed the hope that Shenzhen to continue their efforts to fight their own expanding domestic demand caused by new growth pole, it is necessary to become the most dynamic world markets an important part.

To achieve this goal, Liu believes that the practice should speed up the scientific concept of development to improve the institutional mechanism for adhering to the socialist market economy and the direction of reform, the current, first, we should seize the Government to expand public investment opportunities Second is to create the best financial, business and entrepreneurship service environment, strengthen intellectual property protection, in order to better play of market mechanisms in resource allocation to the basic role.

In addition, Liu believes that in Shenzhen has had the middle-income ratio is relatively high, level of education is relatively high, relatively high level of urbanization of the “three high” under the premise of the characteristics, Shenzhen by Deepening planned so that Shenzhen’s Pearl River Delta region as the core to become China’s largest city Xinhuanet combined group, to become the world’s most dynamic markets, and driven in the market to continuously consolidate and develop its own innovation center , thus for China to expand domestic demand and continue to play an important role in transition.

Chinese version:刘鹤：深圳应努力打造扩大内需新增长极

　　在深圳已经具备了中等收入者比重比较高、受教育程度比较高、城市化水平比较高的“三高”特点的前提下，深圳可通过深化粤港澳合作，使以深圳为核心的珠三角地区能够成为中国最大的大中小结合的城市群，成为世界最具活力的市场，并且在市场拉动下不断巩固和发展自己的创新中心的地位，从而对中国扩大内需、继续转型发挥重要的作用。

　　“美国储蓄率的变化对高依存度的全球经济产生重大影响，未来世界竞争的重要方面就是市场之争。”中央财经领导小组办公室副主任刘鹤认为，中国要成为内需主导的国家，而稳步推进城市化进程是中国扩大内需的主要动力源泉，未来10年可能是我国推进城市化最好的历史机遇。他同时表示，深圳应当在粤港澳合作的深化中，努力打造中国扩大内需新的增长极，成为最具活力的世界市场的重要组成部分。

　　市场将成为最宝贵资源

　　“世界是相互高度依赖的。”对于美国储蓄率的变化，刘鹤说，美国消费占美国GDP的比重约为75%—79%，如果美国消费率下降、储蓄率提高，对全球的贸易体制、金融体制以及各个方面的制度安排都会产生重大影响。在不改变全球化趋势、不改变市场化趋势这两个重要的前提下，美国的储蓄率提高不管从短期还是中长期来说，都会对全球经济产生影响。

　　就中国的情况来看，刘鹤说，长三角地区比较多的贸易份额是在欧盟地区，珠三角地区更多是通过香港转口到美国，现在转口到香港的比重是33%，直接到美国的是28%，两者加起来超过了50%，所以珠三角地区近期经济会受到一定的影响。

　　而从中长期来看，刘鹤认为全球市场的收缩意味着各个国家可能更加重视内需，更加重视保护国内市场，贸易保护主义现象也会随之“抬头”。而且由于总需求的收缩，在未来中长期的时间内，市场将成为最宝贵的资源，世界经济将会返璞归真，真正有能力为世界提供市场的国家才能够获得更高的国际地位。“未来世界竞争一个重要方面，就是怎么进行市场之争。”他说。

　　中国要成为内需主导的国家

　　市场的重要性意味着较大程度上依赖出口的中国需要转变发展方式和增长模式，成为一个内需主导的国家。刘鹤认为，如果中国要成为一个内需主导型的国家，在国际分工中想从主要以生产者向既是生产者又是消费者转化，并逐步成为世界主要市场的话，首先要从主要依靠出口和投资拉动转向主要依靠内需拉动转变，建立调整储蓄和消费关系的制度环境，通过完善的制度使消费率得到稳步提高。

　　其次是提高城市化率和城市规模效益。刘鹤说，对于一个大城市而言，稳步推进城市化进程是中国扩大内需的主要动力源泉，中国的城市化率已经接近45%，但城市化的基础并不牢固，应不断稳定推进。“未来10年可能是我国推进城市化的最好的历史机遇，如果我们错过这个历史机遇，中国扩大内需的战略可能会受到影响。”

　　此外还需要提高中等收入者比重。刘鹤表示，虽然我国已经实现了一部分人、一部分地区先富起来的阶段性目标，一个人口数量逐步扩大的中等收入阶层正在出现，但是无论从哪个角度衡量，这个阶层的比重还是偏低。在这种形势下，目前最重要的是使劳动者具备适应市场竞争和全球环境变化的能力和韧性。所以，他呼吁必须要格外重视加强教育，努力提高人力资本水平。

　　加强粤港澳合作巩固创新地位

　　“在前一轮改革开放中，深圳经济特区起到了至关重要的先锋作用，从某种意义上来说，深圳的经验不仅引领了中国改革开放的未来，对发展中国家、对世界也具有非常重要的意义。”刘鹤表示，希望深圳继续努力，把自己打造成扩大内需新的增长极，要成为最具活力的世界市场的重要组成部分。

　　要实现这一目标，刘鹤认为应加快完善实践科学发展观的体制机制，坚持社会主义市场经济改革的方向，当前，一是要抓住政府扩大公共投资的机会，二是努力创造最好的金融、商务、创业方面的服务环境，加强知识产权保护，以便更好地发挥市场机制对资源配置的基础性作用。

　　此外，刘鹤认为，在深圳已经具备了中等收入者比重比较高、受教育程度比较高、城市化水平比较高的“三高”特点的前提下，深圳可通过深化粤港澳合作，使以深圳为核心的珠三角地区能够成为中国最大的大中小结合的城市群，成为世界最具活力的市场，并且在市场拉动下不断巩固和发展自己的创新中心的地位，从而对中国扩大内需、继续转型发挥重要的作用。2009-03-22